Passenger of the future
The competition between European airports is heavy and the position of Amsterdam airport Schiphol is at stake. While other airports are continuously improving their quality, Schiphol’s quality improvement is stabilizing over time. For a necessary improvement in quality of the airport a passenger’s perspective is required. This research provides a qualitative and quantitative view on the upcoming trends and uncertainties affecting passengertypes in the near future (untill 2025) and beyond. The question that arises is: which trends and uncertainties do impact the future traveller and how big is this impact?
Based upon literature review and experts interviews a set of trends and uncertainties is identified. Interviews are held with eight people from airlines, tourism associations, research institutions and the national government. Both a regression model and a gravitymodel are constructed to derive the quantitative output. Schiphol’s own and European datasources are used for modelinput. By means of scenarioanalysis the uncertainties in these forecasts are taken into account.
The qualitative analysis provided two major trends: the upcoming markets and the ageing of the population. This research only toke the upcoming markets of China and India into account. Quantitaive analyses showed a large increase in the percentage of 60+ travellers at Schiphol. Up to 2025 a doubling of the percentage is forecasted.
For the Chinese market a exponential increase is expected in the coming years. The Indian market at Schiphol will increasemore slowly and will start to accelerate after 2020/2025. These forecasted are subjected to a high extend of uncertainty.